Monday, June 27, 2016

US presidential race and Brexit

The world is still shaken by the Brexit vote in last week. On the other hand, US presidential campaign is approaching a new stage.

In the latest poll by Washington Post and ABE News, Hillary Clinton overcame Donald Trump again. Clinton had been advantageous for several months, but was defeated by Trump in this May for the first time.

The Washington Post: Politics In new poll, support for Trump has plunged, giving Clinton a double-digit lead

This result may suggest unpopularity of Trump as a candidate for the US president even though he has won the nomination. According to this article above, approximately two-thirds of Americans think Trump is not qualified as a leader of a nation. Indeed, he lacks experiences of managing the government. Lots of his speech seems politically incorrect, even if they represent people’s idea of doubt against globalization.

On the other hand, it is unlikely Clinton is supported enough to get the victory. She is also so much unpopular compared to the previous candidates. It seems that this vote will be the most gloomy one ever before for Americans.

This survey was conducted on June 20-23. So the respondents did not know the result of Brexit vote. Rather it is likely they had believed the UK would choose to remain in the EU. It is uncertain that how the US citizens feel after the referendum. Following the collapse of the EU, a strong leader will be expected in the US, perhaps. In contrast, some Americans may identify Brexit as an example that populism has caused a desperate outcome.

By the way, Boris Johnson, the ex-Mayor of London, who has been leading Brexit, is often compared to Trump, as his honest and frank attitude. He is considered as the next Prime Minister of the UK, replacing David Cameron. To be honest, I do not agree with the opinion that he is similar to Trump. Boris looks more deliberate and has many ideas to administer a nation than Trump. Nonetheless, Brexit and Trump’s deals are sharing a trend in which anti-globalization movement is overwhelming political correctness supposed by elite professionals.

I predicted the victory of Clinton at the beginning of this year. However, my expectations are very often wrong. It is sure that the situation to be addressed will be more complicated regardless of the winner.

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