Sunday, November 1, 2015

China quit the one-child policy

Chinese government made a historic decision in the population policy.

Ruling Communist Party will ease the family planning of the couples, permitting them to make two, instead of one, children. It is a significant alteration from Chinese population control with long-lasting one-child policy since 1979.

Reuters: China to allow all couples two children to counter aging population

For several decades, suppression of growing population had been a challenge for China. The dictatorship of Communist Party made it easy, or too successful. Nowadays, the number of young people is only a half of working age population, and older people are approaching to a sixth of working population. Even if the policy change is implemented smoothly, China is still promised to face the aging problem in the near future. Critics say that it is unlikely that the new policy will boost the birth rate.

BBC: China to end one-child policy and allow two

Generally speaking, the birth rate is higher in poorer countries. There are several reasons. In some developing countries, many children cannot survive their childhood. And parents invest all money to one child who is the most talented in their children, to expect he or she will be successful on abroad. Apart from the ethical issue, this method is potentially beneficial to the gifted child. On the other hand, parents in developed countries need not worry about premature death of their babies. Getting higher education is still costly. Also, they have many things to do other than reproducing. Therefore, they tend not to make many children.

How is the situation in China? There is a considerable discrepancy of wealth among each family in spite of the communism policy. Rich parents can bring up two children, but poor parents will have difficulty. The new policy is possible to raise disparity of wealth much more.

Population effect is like a tidal wave. It is theoretically easy to prospect, but hardly controllable in real. China is unique in this matter. I am doubtful someone can manage the situation with true sustainability.

No comments:

Post a Comment