Friday, May 6, 2016

Five risk scenarios for humanity

Can you imagine the end of the world? Apparent from cinema and Sci-Fi novels, there are some possibilities to ruin the world.

Hannah Osborne referred a total of five risk scenarios to destroy the modern civilization. They are climate change, nuclear war, natural pandemics, exogenous risks, and emerging risks. In her definition, asteroids striking the planet is categorized to exogenous risks, and artificial intelligence is classified to emerging risks.

International Business Times: Apocalypse soon? Five most catastrophic risks to humanity identified

According to the internet vote, nuclear war is believed by the largest group of readers, followed by climate change.

This article was posted in April 2016. Concurrently, North Korea which was enthusiastic to conduct missile experiments was focused. It is suspected not a few voters were influenced by the news. Nonetheless, nuclear weapons have been a big threat to the international peace.

However, it is unlikely nuclear war will ruin the world completely. There are only some nations possessing nuclear weapons. Throwing nuclear missiles into a country which has no power to retaliate is meaningless. It will attenuate not only armies but also other constructive facilities. As a result, even if huge nations perish, rather small countries will survive.

Climate change is fearful, but its influence will grow slowly. In a longitudinal perspective, a human can adapt to amended climate.

In my opinion, emerging risks are to be treated the most cautiously. Some researchers have made a warning about the risk for artificial intelligence to be out of control. IT is spread to most regions of the world. It means one erroneous deal will cause a global disaster.

My past entry: Will Artificial Intelligence overwhelm human being?

My past entry: Age of Ultron, a potential future

To avoid critical failures, it is essential to diversify the risks. It is good for us that Microsoft and Apple are competing. Analog records will be necessary also in the future, in spite of its inconvenience.

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