Sunday, January 5, 2014

Facebook in the future

There are various arguments around Facebook since a surprising result was published. Teenagers are likely to abandon Facebook. Daniel Miller, an anthropologist in London, commented that Facebook was buried.

The Guardian Alpha: Teenagers migrate from Facebook as parents send them friend requests

According to this article, there are some reasons why young people do not care for Facebook any more. First, they are fond of connecting to peer friends, not to their parents. Second, they tend to change their basic attitude to others around them in accordance to their standing. However, Facebook forces them to use a unique account. It is driven from the ideology of Mark Zackerberg, the founder of Facebook. He believes that modern society is so transparent that no one can mimic their own identity.

Another problem around Facebook is also severe. Now Facebook has too complicated structure. It equips many many functions, most of which is not even recognized by users. Nonetheless, Facebook engineers have to add on more new tools to meet the demand of stakeholders. Cost for maintenance is rapidly increasing. It is a dilemma as same as Microsoft Windows, and more other gigantic companies.

The figure of Facebook usage may be various in each country. In the US, as LinkedIn is popular for business use, Facebook is utilized nearly exclusively for personal relationships. But people who want to chat tend to substitute other messenger applications. In Japan, the seat is occupied by Line. In developing countries, advertisement model has not been established as a method of monetization. Although free-ride users is increasing, it is difficult to launch a sustainable local service.

So, what is the Facebook in the future? I anticipate that Facebook will be working as an internet service provider. It is not an attractive tool but an infrastructure. The number of the accounts is still a power. Many people will continue to use Facebook due to the necessity. I guess Facebook will survive as a company. However I am afraid it will be far away from the ideology of Zackerberg.


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