As a parliamentary election is planned on May 7th, I receive several advertising mails recently, despite I have no right to vote.
The media report the advantage of David Cameron and the ruling conservative party. It seems that any chaotic situations are not expected, different from the referendum regarding the independence of Scotland in last year.
The voting rate in the UK is not so high. The voter turnout in the UK dramatically decreased in the 21st century, fell to 60%. After that, the rate remains 65%. This tendency is also seen in Japan. Also in the US, vote rate was only 67.95% in 2014. The indifference to the politics especially in youth seems common in several developed countries.
General election turnout 1945 – 2010
The Guardian released an article discussing the secession from the EU. Cameron has stated to plan the referendum in 2017 about this issue.
The Guardian: What would happen if Britain left the EU?
Considering the information from the media, it is unlikely for British people to decide the secession from the EU. Cameron's statement seems to be merely a concern towards people belonging to extreme right wing thoughts. As suggested in this article, there is scarce merit for the UK to say goodbye to the EU.
In terms of the international business, membership of the EU is advantageous for the UK. If it leaves from the EU, exporting goods to other countries in the EU will become difficult. In the context of financial service, Swiss is a successful example outside of the EU. However, it is uncertain if the UK can mimic the same scheme leading to gain adequate interest.
The matter of immigration tends to be focused, and sometimes ignites an emotional reaction. However, it is reported that immigrants have little impact on the deterioration in the wages of domestic employees. On the other hand, immigration can be beneficial to further development in the long term, both in keeping the population and accelerating the innovation through the mixing cultures.
It is obvious that the most important risk of the EU is Euro crisis. Germany has dealt with the fiscal problems in the EU several times. The UK also has to pay the considerable amount of cash for the maintenance of the EU. However, the influence of Euro crisis is limited because the UK has not adopted Euro as the local currency. I think the UK made a wise choice.
Totally, it is unrealistic for the UK to leave from the EU immediately. It should not be argued in juxtapose to the Scotland, in my opinion. Nonetheless, this issue will occasionally be mentioned. Because it is an easy way to make the citizens pay attention to politics.