Poll results in Austria and Italy and the future of EU

On Dec 4th, 2016, Austrian Presidential vote was conducted. As a result, Alexander van der Bellen, the former Green Party leader, defeated Norbert Hofer, a far-right politician, to be reelected.

It is quite relieving for European countries that Hofer failed to grab the top of Austria. Hofer belongs to Freedom Party which has an exclusive policy and strongly against accepting refugees. If he had won the vote, the EU would have approached to its termination by one step.

However, the difference of the acquisition rate among two candidates is so close; 53 percent v 46 percent. This result had not been certain until the vote box was entirely open.

Independent: Austria: European leaders celebrate defeat for far-right Hofer as 'the liberal majority pushes back'

There are still many supporters of Freedom Party, while Green Party cannot get the majority of the parliament. Whereas Austrian President has only limited administrative powers, it is uncertain which way the nation will proceed to.

In contrast, Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, committed to resigning following the result of the latest poll. Italian voters rejected the amendment of Constitution supposed by Renzi. It is expected that Five Star Movement, an anti-establishment party, will grow in the Italian parliament. It means the risk for Italy to exit from the EU is increased.

The Guardian: Italy heads to the polls: 'We are playing for the next 20 years' – Renzi

Considering these results, it seems to become a little difficult for EU to survive for more years. The next year, a general election will be held in Germany. If Angela Merkel loses the vote, it will be a critical damage for the EU. Even if not, the EU has to reconsider its value in the current era of uncertainty.

Casino gambling bill will be passed in Japan

The Japan lower house committee passed a bill to allow casino gambling on Dec 2nd, 2016. It will enable companies to develop gambling resorts in Japan.

Kyodo News: Casino bill clears Japan Diet panel after rapid deliberation

So far, Japan has banned gambling facilities and relevant acts such as poker, blackjack, and roulette. However, public house race, cycling race, and powerboat race, with betting money, are frequently conducted. National soccer league is also subjected to gambling legally.

In addition, though it is hard to understand for foreign people, pachinko and slot machines are also practically permitted in Japan. There are many pachinko parlors unofficially administered in every city in Japan. They are not deemed as gambling facilities, because parlors do not give money to customers at all. Instead, they offer some goods as prizes. Winners can exchange these goods into money in stores nearby. Thus, pachinko is not defined as a gamble in a legal context, but every player enjoys it as gambling. It is widely recognized that some antisocial organizations are associated with pachinko parlor administration, although most customers are not concerned about the fact.

Furthermore, some Japanese enjoy gambling using several ways other than casino facilities. In recent years, some companies selling digital goods with a virtual slot machine in social games were condemned as they attract customers’ gambling mind. Real money trade, or trading virtual items in a network game with real currency, was also subjected to the argument. The combination with a virtual slot and real money trade would construct explicit gambling.

And some people are eager to make FX trade. Some are engaged in it as a means of earning money. But others play FX with a sense of gambling.

After all, alternative forms of gambling have been well developed in Japan because of longitudinal regulation of gambling by the government. Therefore, if casino facilities are permitted, the influence on Japanese gamblers’ mind will be limited. Practically, only aged people who have been accustomed to house race and foreign travelers familiar with traditional blackjack will visit new facilities, for my prediction. Young people with a risk of pathological gambling will continue to be absorbed to other entertainment, including online games and money trades.

Abe administration is eager to pass the bill with expecting financial benefits, through attracting foreign people in the Olympic planned in Tokyo in 2020. This idea is correct, I think. Foreign travelers seldom have an opportunity to play Pachinko or Japanese horse race. Rather, they tend to visit traditional casinos.

On the other hand, gambling disorder, or pathological gambling, has not been studied in Japan because gambling is officially prohibited. It is ridiculous, for many Japanese are indulged in gambling behaviors with several ways. A recent survey suggested millions of Japanese are diagnosed with gambling disorder. I believe this result is a pretty exaggerated.
Nonetheless, it is sure that a certain amount of people are suffering from gambling disorder. We should treat them with appropriate ways. I expect the legalization of gambling will enable us to clarify the current situation to develop a treatment strategy for problematic gamblers.

Hollande will not rise in the second term

Francois Hollande, the French President, announced not to participate in the next presidential vote. It is for the first time in these 50 years of French history of politics for the present president to quit his seat after the first term.

International Business Times: President Hollande announces he is not running for second term in 2017 presidential race

According to the media reports, Hollande said that he would like to give a chance of defeating extremists as well as conservatism to the ruling Socialists Party.

Indeed, National Front, a far-right party has a considerable degree of presence in French society. Recent terrorism occurred in Paris and Nice made citizens exclusive to foreign people. Their ideology is absolutely against socialists. It is expected that the ruling Socialists Party will win the next general election planned in January. However, Hollande himself is rather unpopular in France. Thus, his decision to abandon the Presidential seat in the next term means he prioritizes Socialists Party upon his own position.

I have introduced several events occurred in France so far. Some of them represent characteristics in the mind of French people, such as Anti-Amazon law to protect traditional booksellers and a homemade food symbol. Recently, I remember the burkini issue mainly discussed in France. Finally, the supreme court accepted burkini in the beach.

My past entry: Anti-Amazon Law rise in France

My past entry: France set symbol of home-made food

My past entry: Burkini bans in France beach

French people seem to be struggling to balance the traditional goodness and newly values. The ruling of Hollande and Socialist Party is quite symbolic. I wonder how French people will assess the current situation after that.

OPEC decides to cut oil production

The OPEC, or Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, agreed to reduce the oil production at the last OPEC meeting on Nov. 30th, 2016.

It means that the oil price will be raised by the contract of oil producing nations. The members plan to cut production by about 1.2 million barrels per day, equal to 3.5 percent of current production.

CNBC: The OPEC deal is done. Here’s what to expect from oil markets next

So far, the oil price is rapidly falling since 2014. The current price is a half of that in two years ago. One reason is decreased buying the power of China. In addition, Iran has been willing to increase the production after the relationship with the US was restored.

Saudi Arabia, one of the main oil producers, is eager to control the price. In contrast, Iran and Iraq, which is involved in the conflict against anti-governmental organizations, hesitate to reduce the oil production. Because of the imbalance of each nation’s view, controlling the oil price had been difficult.

However, they agreed to the planned reduction at last. Vladimir Putin seems to have taken a crucial role in committing the deal among OPEC members. He met Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman in this September. He admitted the influence of Putin on this negotiation, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran as well.

Live Mint: How Putin got Saudi Arabia and Iran to agree on an Opec deal

I think stabilized oil price will work beneficially to the world in total. In recent years, Putin often takes the leadership instead of the US. Considering that President-elect Donald Trump has no intention to become the manager of the world, Putin’s presence will grow much more.

Brazilian football team encountered aircraft crash

On 28th Nov, an airplane accident occurred, which blew Brazilians so hard.

The British Aerospace 146, chartered by Chapecoense, a famous Brazilian football team, had an electrical failure, resulting in a crash into a mountain in Columbia. There was a total of 77 passengers in the plane. And only six survived the accident.

Telegraph: Colombia plane crash: 71 dead and six survivors on flight carrying Chapecoense football team

Some team members, journalists, and guests were included in the victims.  Although some were alive, the death of great athletes is a shocking tragedy.  Chapecoense itself will be forced to be restructured for forming the team again.

Traffic accidents are serious problems without exception. But when such a specific vehicle meets a crash, the influence will be expanded. For example, if a bus carrying physicians who are gathered for an academic conference is burned out, local hospital network will be collapsed.

The rate of an aircraft accident is so low that we need not be afraid of encountering the trouble. Nonetheless, we should prepare for the possibility that one accident will destroy the function of an association.

Sequels in November 2016

November 21, 2016
Abe meets Trump

After the meeting, Abe was criticized by the opposing Democratic Party as his affirmative TPP is not approved by Trump. Abe is eager to enforce TPP. But it seems almost impossible. I heard one foreign politician saying "if TPP were renamed to Trump Pacific Partnership, Trump would have accepted TPP." I think this joke is so sweet that it expresses Trump's narcissistic character well.


November 14, 2016
Treatment of depression: multi-angle approach

Recently, I read some article about sleep deprivation therapy. It seems quite promising, but evidence about its efficacy and practical examples are still limited.


November 9, 2016
Gloomy Donald Trump's triumph for presidential vote

Now, Donald Trump is making several speeches as the President-elect. He declared to build a great wall on the border between the US and Mexico, using Mexican budget, as he promised before the Presidential vote. Some of his policies seem rational than as expected before. And the market responded his words, resulting in the stronger USD. The future is still in the deep mist.


November 2, 2016
Park Geun-hye in peril

At last, Park presented an intention to resign the President.

BBC: South Korea's President Park 'willing to resign'

Her resignation is perhaps to minimize the degree of damage on herself and the government, avoiding from the impeachment. On the other hand, she will take the risk of being arrested after stepping down from the Presidential seat. Anyway, the political life of Park seems to be terminated.

Meaning of negative emotions: “The Upside of Your Dark Side”

Just now, I have completed reading "The Upside of Your Dark Side," written by  Todd Kashdan and Robert Biswas-Diener. This book has translated into Japanese, and it is available in Kindle Unlimited service.

Amazon.com: The Upside of Your Dark Side: Why Being Your Whole Self―Not Just Your "Good" Self―Drives Success and Fulfillment

The central claim of this book is to emphasize the benefits of your negative emotion such as anger, anxiety, and remorse. The author begins to indicate that modern society, especially in the US, is pursuing individual happiness too much. Everyone should be happy, pleasant, and cherish. Optimism and mindfulness are recommended by many leading people. However, these positive emotions are not always beneficial for the better life of ours, according to the authors.

For example, getting angry sometimes brings us a drive for improving the current situation. And remorse is necessary to learn better behaviors in the future.

In addition, the authors presented several results of experiments suggesting the efficacy of negative emotions. Optimists are often vulnerable to tough situations whereas pessimists are well tolerant to unexpected disasters. They emphasize the dangerousness of ignoring your negative emotions.

Mindfulness is also subjected of criticism. The authors agree with the importance of mindful thoughts. But actually, we usually behave mindlessly. Automated behaviors are often optimized to each of daily situation.

After all, the authors believe in the value of “wholeness,” which means balanced mind. You can accept your negative emotions as well as positive ones. Joy and meaning, novelty and stability are both elements of value in your life.

I totally agree the authors’ claim. You need not eliminate negative thoughts and emotions from your heart.

Though many experiments are referred in this book, source of each study are hardly clarified. It is not an exception of the same structure in a similar type of books. To be honest, I am doubtful about most of the results of studies introduced by the authors. But it is difficult to examine them. I think it is a serious flaw of this kind of books.