Plant bottle challenge

Plastic bottle will be replaced to plants in the future.

According to the media, Avantium, a biochemical company in Netherlands is going to proceed a project to make plastics from plant sugars. It is collaborative with Carlsberg, a famous beer company.

The Guardian: The end of plastic? New plant-based bottles will degrade in a year

Plastic is easy to form and stable for a long time. But it is made from massive fossil. Since we are too much dependent on carbonate, we have to abandon plastic bottles some day.

I do not believe recycling is a decisive solution for sustainable environment. Rather, replacing scarce resources with new materials gradually is reasonable. I hope Avantium's attempt will be successful.

Chiba to ban Apple products

The relationship between the US and China seems to have become worsened unfortunately.

China is preparing to restrict the import of Apple and some American products, according to Global Times, a semiofficial paper of Communist Party of China.

Reuters: China ready to put Apple, other U.S. companies in 'unreliable entity list': Global Times

It is uncertain the news is corrected. Anyway, China is going to exclude the US industry. It is the same vice versa. I am afraid this deteriorating relationship will make no victors. Perhaps, some developing counties which introduce any nation's product will be dominant in the future.

Baffett abandon airline companies

Warren Buffett, a worldly famous investor, sold stocks of four popular airline companies.

Axios: Warren Buffett abandons U.S. airlines with a $6B billion stock sale

He said to have sold Delta, United, American, and Southwest market stocks.

Indeed, many airline companies experienced deadly loss of profits in these months mainly because of the corona pandemic. Even if this situation is ended soon, we will have to reconsider the usage of public transport. As well, many nations are prepared for the next era in which independence from other nations will be essential.

On the other hand, Warren Buffett's policy of investment is longitudinal stance. I am not certain that airline companies will not recover their balance sheet soon.

Air pollution reduced due to COVID-19

Accumulating evidence suggests the level of air pollution was reduced significantly in these days.

It is no doubt that the outcome is thankful to corona virus pandemic followed by the lockdown in several cities such as London and New York.  But not only urban areas but also some rural areas were given clearer air recently. It may be partially because the fact that many factories are crippled due to shortage of workers.

Evening Express: Air pollution falls as UK goes into coronavirus lockdown

Air pollution is one of the biggest problems of environmental issues. Dirty sky is estimated to take 40,000 people's life in the UK. In this sense, it is more awful than COVID-19.

Researchers say the influence of cleaned sky will not be able to be calculated exactly because many people died by COVID-19. Many victims are elder so that they might be dead by other reasons even if not infected with COVID-19.

Nonetheless, this phenomenon tells us many things. First, air pollution is without doubt caused by human activity. Second, it is reversible, and the effect of stopping activities will be gained soon.

Some regions have started to restrict air polluting activities such as driving a car in city. It is possible that temporal suspension of industrial activity such as "no NO2 week" will be a political practice in the future after overcoming the pandemic.

Smartphone in the future

I bought Samsung's Galaxy S9 recently because the previous smartphone was crippled.

My past entry: Crippled Nexus

The new smartphone is of course very good. Meanwhile, however, Samsung will launch the new model, Galaxy 10, soon. I knew this expectation, but I had no choice than replacing my smartphone.

Then, what is the final goal of smartphones?

According to the media, the larger the screen is, the more time we spend on the smartphone. This hypothesis is reasonable considering the convenience of a larger screen. But, there is a trade-off between the screen size and portability. You would not carry a device with an 8-inch screen identifying it as a phone.

Samsung is planning to launch a smartphone with a foldable screen. This vision has been suggested by Samsung since it adopted organic EL displays.

The New York Times: What’s Next for Smartphones? Here Are a Few Answers

Therefore, a foldable smartphone will be seen in the near future, I believe. But, it will never be an ultimate solution for the need for omnipotent smartphones. I have never visualized the final device the human can get.

Dystopia with AI will never come

Currently, AI attracts public attention frequently. Some people dream the future in which we live comfortably with good robots. But others are fearful about dystopia.

The author of the article below seems to be the latter. Some risks of violating the human rights by AI are suggested. For example, AI will get rid of our creative jobs. Also, our freedom of speech is limited more strictly than AI in some nations.

The Conversation: Could an artificial intelligence be considered a person under the law?

Some famous people such as Eron Musk are also skeptical or negative to the future with AI. But, I do not support these ideas the author suggests.

First, the legal responsibility belongs to the human exclusively. Nobody is satisfied when an AI program is punished for the damage it inflicted to others.

Second, versatile AI is far from completion. For some decades, the subject of discussion will be limited to specific AI. Then, AI is a tool rather than our partner.

Third, some AI will be more intelligent to us, indeed. But, the structure of this issue is similar to animals than the human being. Even now, some animals are cleverer than some people with severe intellectual disability. Nonetheless, animals cannot be superior to humans. We should be equally respected regardless of our ability. AI need not be respected. The programmer should be.

For these reasons, I do not believe AI will threaten the human right.

On the other hand, we should be cautious about the usage of AI. AI is a good tool but can be destructive, like atomic weapons. Some legislation will be needed for controlling the usage not for controlling AI itself.

Sequels in September 2018

Saturday, September 22, 2018
Zaif was broken

Following the fraud case, Fisco decided to financially support Zaif. It seems to dominate Zaif on this occasion. On the other hand, Zaif has stopped allowing the new registration of customers.


Friday, September 21, 2018
Singularity will come sooner than you expect?

Just yesterday, I read a book in which the author claimed that singularity would not come within this century. There is a broad dispute regarding future prospecting.


Monday, September 10, 2018
Exam for licensed psychologist

I checked my answers in this exam. As far as my evaluation, I am sure that I will get the license.

Alexa will soon read your mind?

Amazon's Alexa, a smart speaker, will be able to guess the client's thought.

The Guardian: Amazon's Alexa knows what you forgot and can guess what you're thinking

According to the comment of Amazon in the event conducted in Seattle, Alexa Hunches, the new feature planned to be equipped, will examine user's regular behavioral patterns. And it will suggest something the user missed.

This feature looks innovative at a glance. But, there are some similar approaches already introduced. For instance, Gmail reminds you of forgetting attaching files when the text of the email suggests it. This act resembles a human secretary's.

Smart speaker corrects a large amount of the data regarding your behavior. It will help not only to improve the quality of its performance but also enhance its role itself. In this sense, its direction of the evolution is entirely rational. Of course, the protection of user's privacy is essential.

Zaif was broken

Zaif, a famous cryptocurrency exchange was hacked, just recently.

CNN: Newsflash: Japanese Cryptocurrency Exchange Zaif Hacked, $59 Million in Losses

A large amount of Bitcoin, Mona coin, and Bitcoin Cash were withdrawn from its hot wallet illicitly. According to the media, the total amount of loss reached 59 million USD.

Zaif is a Japanese exchange administered by Asayama. It reported having decided on accepting financial aid from Fisco, a popular finance company in Japan. It suggests that Zaif will be ruled by Fisco.

In Japan, Coincheck was also hacked resulting in more than 500 million USD in losses. There are many other examples of cryptocurrency exchanges being cracked. Attacking a cryptocurrency exchange seems now a trend for cybercriminals. If successful, the fruit is tremendous I believe money laundering of stolen cryptocurrency is another challenge. But unfortunately, there is no example that the criminal is arrested when using the coins so far.

Maintaining convenience and security consist of a dilemma. We pay not a few amounts of fees for bank exchange. Storing coins in a wallet is perhaps too risky for exchanges to assure the asset of customers. In the near future,  many exchanges will introduce more retro and inconvenient processes, such as manual input, for some particular transactions instead of usage of more vulnerable ways.

Singularity will come sooner than you expect?

It is said that singularity will come by 2045 when AI overwhelms human activities entirely. Some people believe this idea, others never. In my opinion, singularity must come but it takes more several decades.

However, our jobs will be replaced by machines perhaps sooner than we imagine. According to a recent study, the majority of tasks in our society will be managed by machines by 2025.

AFP: Machines will do more tasks than humans by 2025: WEF

This expectation seems radical. But the paper also says that 29% of the workplace tasks are performed by machine even now. It is hardly believable that approximately a third of all tasks is operated by machines, to be honest.

The degree of superiority of machines depends on the characteristics in each region of jobs. In the service industry, most people still want to be cared for by a human server. Machines will soon replace some of the tasks, such as moving support. But navigating a confused patient with dementia to a creative activity is not an easy task for current AI.

On the other hand, machines have been dominant in several regions while we are unconscious. Maybe we will not notice when singularity actually come.

Amazon reaches one trillion USD following Apple

Amazon's stock price touched 1 trillion USD just recently. It is for the second time for a particular company to gain the historic amount of value since Apple also accomplished it in the previous month.

Reuters: Amazon touches $1 trillion, on pace to overtake Apple

Amazon took only 21 years to take the point while Apple required 38 years. Apple had once faced a hard time after exiling Steve Jobs. In contrast, Jeff Bezos has been controlling the gigantic company.

Then, which will is advantageous for the next decade? I am not sure.

Apple has very few kinds of products. In other words, Apple only invented the iPhone and Mac, whereas Amazon is expanding its range of business from e-commerce to cloud computing and even work sharing. As a company, Amazon is more invulnerable than Apple, I think.

However, Apple successfully changed the boss from Steve Jobs to Tim Cook. A succession of the founder is a big challenge for companies whose top was charismatic.

Anyway, the situation is changing. Continuous pursuing better change is essential for Amazon to progress more.

Bitcoin will not replace credit card easily

In spite of repeated disgraceful scandals, Bitcoin is gradually becoming major in some people recently. Some famous financial companies have committed to support Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Not only enthusiasts but also some aggressive investors deem Bitcoin as a subject of dealing.

Blockchain had been developed initially for providing a system of transaction. It does not need any central administrator. Also, the transaction fee is minimal because of its unique structure.

Then, anyone considers the possibility that Bitcoin will replace credit cards. Credit card payment is now dominant in most developed countries. But it burdens stores 3-4% of the fee. Some restaurants hate the cost so that they never accept credit cards. If Bitcoin payment becomes common, its transaction fee would be lower.

Forbes: Could Bitcoin Replace Credit Cards?

In my opinion, however, it is not likely that Bitcoin will perish credit cards. Credit cards companies have gained a global reputation, as its name suggests. In contrast, Bitcoin is still hardly trusted by many people. There are several fraud cases reported every day. I believe it will take a decade for Bitcoin to gain the trust equal to credit cards. At the same time, credit card companies will have transformed its business model.

Future of authors and publishers

Nowadays, it is said that books are hardly sold. Many authors are suffering from decreased sales. One of the domestic reasons is the rise of the internet, of course. Most people do not want to pay the information which is available on the internet for free.

However, the book sales are not shrinking, according to some publishers. HarperCollins recorded increased sales by 83 million USD in the quarter this year. The UK publishing industry is also growing by 5%.

Forbes: Why Authors Are Earning Less Even As Book Sales Rise

The author of this article above guesses that complex factors cause the gap between authors' income and book sales. Mary Rasenberger, the executive director of the Authors Guild suggests publishing industry consolidation is responsible for it.

On the other hand, some authors became independent of publishers. Nowadays, Amazon.com and some providers offer authors the opportunity for selling their books, mainly on the online form.

Considering these facts, the publishing industry is reforming itself. Selling a book from a famous publisher will be no more honor, neither an excellent earning way. Popular authors will create their private publisher. Then, conventional publishers will support rather young authors, perhaps.

Summit between North and South Korea expected

The summit between South and North Korea is going to be realized.

In recent, it was reported that the leaders of these nations agreed with the implementation of the summit at Pyongyang. It will be held in this September, though the exact date is yet to be fixed. If realized, it will be for the first time for President Moon Jae-in to enter Pyongyang within this decade.

AFP: Koreas to hold Pyongyang summit in September: Yonhap

President Moon has been rather sympathetic to the North compared to previous leaders of South Korea. Therefore, this movement is not so surprising. Nonetheless, it is splendid that both nations are proceeding to understand each other.

I do not believe that, however, the Korean peninsula will be integrated. Both nations do not want to do it. For the South, North Korea's poor financial status will be too much burden to overcome. For the North, combined with the South means the North's extinction. Neither both nation will make an agreeable line. Broadening demilitarized area is a feasible goal for this expected summit. The situation is far different from Germany after the WWII.

Anyway, I expect the summit will be completed fruitfully for both nations.

Lack of CO2 make Mars illivable

There are many dreams we have not achieved. Terraforming Mars is one of the universal desires of the human being.

In the previous centuries, some Sci-Fi writers described octopus-shaped aliens living on Mars. Nowadays, it is highly likely that there are no intelligent beings on Mars. Evidence suggesting some bacteria are on Mars is limited, while the discussion is yet to be resolved.

As well, studies to investigate the environment on Mars are proceeding. There is water on Mars, but most of it evaporates in a short time. Since the gravity level is only one-fifth of that on Earth, the density of the atmosphere is quite low.

A recent report was disappointing. Mars does not have enough carbon dioxide (CO2), according to the latest investigation. CO2 is one form of green gases. Lack of CO2 makes the surface temperature on Mars to low for humans to survive. Also, CO2 is essential for plants to grow. According to the article below, we have no technology to produce enough CO2 on Mars.

Independent: Mars cannot be terraformed so that we can live there because there is not enough carbon dioxide, scientists reveal

It is ironic that excessive CO2 makes the Earth warm. The cosmic plantation is not a fantasy. It will not, however, be feasible for decades.

Casino bill approved in Japan

The diet of Japan approved the integrated resort bill, just recently. Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, is willing to promote Japanese casinos for improving the economic status.

However, the casino bill is deemed to be unpopular for citizens, according to the media.

The Japan Times: Poll finds nearly two-thirds oppose passage of casino bill; Cabinet’s approval rating falls to 43.4%

Generally, I do not trust such a poll conducted by a company. It is often biased. But I believe that many people dislike casinos, indeed. And, it is a problem in Japan.

In reality, there are enormous pachinko parlors in Japan. Also, many Japanese are indulged in online games some of which has similar characteristics to gambling. Furthermore, FX and cryptocurrency trading are excellent subjects for gamblers.

Thus, the field and opportunity of gambling have been already arranged in Japan. The Japanese government had prohibited gambling behaviors. Therefore, pachinko was not deemed as gambling. It is very ridiculous. What is more absurd is some people opposing to the IR bill claiming the risk of gambling disorder is not against pachinko at all.

On the other hand, the IR bill has many restrictions to the administrator of resorts. They will be disadvantageous for the companies which are planning to introduce gambling facilities in Japan.

In my opinion, the IR bill will make no more impact on Japan's situation, I am afraid.

Samsung will introduce AI speaker

Samsung is going to release a new AI speaker this year.

Samsung's AI program is called Bixby. How the expected smart speaker works is yet to be revealed.

South China Morning Post: Samsung's entry into AI speaker market will wake up rivals such as Kakao, Google and Amazon

Smart speaker market is very competitive. Currently, Amazon's Echo is dominant as occupying 43.6% share, followed by Google.

The issue is that there are several providers of gadgets which are potentially connected to the AI speaker. It is not sure what kind of electrical devices will obey your voice when you introduce an AI speaker. For example, the TV in front of me will not be controllable with any smart speakers.

Shortly, many devices will adapt to several types of smart speaker, in my prospect. It will resemble standards of DVD-R. Then I will try one.

G20 and trade war

The G20 meeting has begun, One of the main themes of this conference is how to deal with the current trend of globalization.

Most nations, especially in the EU, are willing to guarantee open and free trading to defeat protectionism. But the US administered by Donald Trump is against this idea. The conflict became deeper after the US strengthened the tariff against China.

At the same time, Japan made a historic contract with the EU. This EU-Japan economy partnership is expected to reduce a total of one billion Euro in the customs duty.

Independent: EU and Japan say new trade deal is signal to the world that protectionism does not work

Japan is the most significant ally of the US, both in the historical view and political context. However, Japan and the US is sometimes competing in the economic field. Therefore, Japan has to make valuable deals with EU and Asian nations as well.

I do not believe Trump's America First policy will work forever. It seems practical in a short-term but will reduce the principal strength of the US in a longitudinal view. I am not sure which nations will be dominant in the next era.

Blockchain will solve property issues

After the rise of Bitcoin, cryptocurrency has attracted significant public attention. Though it is frequently argued about the value of Bitcoin itself, there may be no objection about the innovativeness of blockchain technology. Therefore, many people are considering alternative use of blockchain other than cryptocurrency.

Blockchain is a series of record which is hardly deliberately modified afterward. Thus, official records which should be kept as the original form for a long time are suitable for products with blockchain.

In reality, an attempt to record the land properties with blockchain is ongoing. If realized, the risk of conflict due to incomplete or destroyed official records will be remarkably reduced. The intellectual property will also be applicable to a similar scheme.

The Conversation: Blockchain-based property registries may help lift poor people out of poverty

We expect newly developed technology to make a change of the world dramatically. But, minor improvement of our daily life thanks to innovation is also crucial for the better future.

Amazon and Walmart

There are many retailers of products all over the world. Among them, most people will suggest Amazon or Walmart as the top of them. Amazon is the first company which utilized the online internet shopping. On the other hand, Walmart is a leading company providing the real fields of merchandise.

In recent years, Amazon and Walmart are seriously competing, according to the article below. It is not surprising at all. Every company has the mission: gaining the top of share. As customers can choose Amazon or Walmart for purchasing goods, they are always conflicting with each other.

Forbes: Amazon And Walmart: Digital Native Vs. Physical Presence

In Japan, Walmart is not so famous compared to Amazon's good reputation. Walmart bought Seiyu, a famous supermarket brand in Japan, in 2002. Walmart made a great restructured upon Seiyu management for growing the profit. But it seems Walmart's policy was not successful. Just recently, it is guessed that Walmart intends to sell Seiyu's stock, according to the media. In addition, Walmart is struggling to find the buyer despite the popularity of Seiyu. Thus, Walmart is likely to abandon Japan as a target.

Walmart and similar companies have grown with some great advantages such as many shops located in a significant place and continuous trust of citizens around the shop. However, these advantages are not perpetual. Amazon has taken destructive innovation. I hardly believe Walmart will defeat Amazon. And Amazon will be defeated by a new company come from out of our imagination.