The MTS act and suicide (3)

The MTS act and suicide (1)
The MTS act and suicide (2)

So, We have reached the point of discussion.
The suicide rate of the people with mental disorders in Japan is 0.9 % in a year.

The total number of the patients alleged to the MTS act is 2,339 at the end of 2012, 36 of which have committed suicide, according to the article.

In general, the number of the offenders who commit serious cases under the condition of insanity or diminished responsibility is about 300 to 400 in a year in Japan. The description that there are 2339 cases of the MTS act in 8 years is suitable to this fact.

The suicide rate is calculated at 1.5 % (36 / 2,339).

However, this number is the cumulative total of 7.5 years, for the MTS act was enforced in July 15, 2005.

The suicide rate in a year should be calculated with the suicide cases in a year divided by the all active cases in a year.

The mean suicide cases is 4.8 in a year (36 / 7.5).

On the other hand, the number of active cases is not easily calculated, because the term of treatment is various in each case. Furthermore, the scheme of the MTS act has not been stabilized yet. Some of the designated hospitals are under construction. The number of the patients being treated in the MTS act is increasing. These mean that the cases entering the scheme are larger than the cases ending the treatment in the MTS act.

Theoretically, 300 to 400 cases enter the MTS act every year, and the term of the treatment is 1.5 years (inpatient care) plus 3 to 5 years (outpatient care). The mean hospitalization term is 574 days, according to an official report by the government in 2012. So, it is assumed that each patient will be involved in the MTS act for 5.5 (1.5 + 4) years. Therefore, a total of 1925 (350 * 5.5) patients will be involved in the MTS act at any time.

If 20 patients committed suicide in a year, the suicide rate would be 1 % (20 / 1925). It is not so miserable as the suicide rate of the patients with mental disorders, even if each case is regretful.

Moreover, the patients in the MTS act are severely disabled people. Most of them have quite poor social supports. They are much more risky people than other patients.

There are 36 cases of suicide in 8 years in the MTS act. The interpretation of the number is not easy.

To be honest, this analysis includes a notable disadvantage. I will refer to it tomorrow.

(To be continued)